The Fourcast

In this special audience Q&A episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban answer your questions on the big geopolitical issues shaping our world. They ask why the West ignored Putin's aggression for so long, why Europe can't build its own rival to Starlink and whether Donald Trump's $1.5 trillion defence spending plan can rescue the US military. Do you have any burning geopolitical questions you want Matt and Mark to answer? Send us your questions by leaving them in the comments and Matt and Mark will do their best to answer them in a future episode of the Fourcast Indicators.

Argentine President Javier Milei, has declared that the Falklands “illegal foreign occupation” and that his country needs to take them back from the UK. But 44 years after Britain defeated Argentina in the Falklands War, could another invasion be on the cards? And with Britain’s military much more depleted today than in the 80s, could they even retake the islands? On this episode of the Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban speak to Chris Sabatini, the Director of the Latin America Programme at Chatham House. He says that the presence of oil near the islands, as well as his tanking popularity at home, has pushed President Milei into putting the archipelago back into the spotlight.

Is the AI bubble about to burst? And could the trillion-dollar investment boom trigger the next global financial crisis? Gary Gensler, the former head of America's financial regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), warns that a major downturn in AI investment could be just 18 to 30 months away, potentially putting banks, pensions and the wider global economy at risk. In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Gensler about why he believes the AI boom is unsustainable, whether the world could face another financial crisis like 2008, and what happens when the enormous debts funding AI data centres come due. They also discuss Donald Trump's approach to financial regulation, his family's involvement in cryptocurrency and prediction markets, and whether America's financial watchdogs are still capable of holding the powerful to account. Gensler, now a professor at MIT and host of the podcast Power and Consequences, also explains why he believes the risks posed by increasingly powerful AI systems are real, despite Trump's dismissal of AI safety concerns.

What is it like for ordinary Russians living in Vladimir Putin’s Russia at war? What do they really think? Award-winning war correspondent Åsne Seierstad has travelled deep inside Russia to find out. Her new book, Never Say War, takes us behind the propaganda to reveal a society shaped by fear, repression and the human cost of war.

Ukraine relies on the good will of two volatile American billionaires to hit Russian targets and defend their own skies - but this week that relationship with Elon Musk and Donald Trump has reached breaking point as Kyiv's access to Starlink was cut after Trump’s surprise diesel deal with Vladimir Putin. Ukraine’s defence minister says operations have been partially restored, and Musk says it’s the US government that controls the military side of Starlink, called Starshield. So what happens now? Can Ukraine survive without Musk’s technology? And, as Zelenskyy says he feels betrayed by Trump, is this a final, fatal blow in their relationship? On this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban are joined by Elisabeth Braw of the Atlantic Council to discuss.

A dramatic escalation in Yemen has plunged the Middle East into a fresh geopolitical crisis, after a series of deadly Houthi missile attacks on Saudi Arabia’s airports and oil and gas infrastructure. The long running civil war is one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. But why are the Houthis at war with Saudi Arabia? And how does it fit into the wider Middle East conflicts? In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Middle East Eye Editor-in-Chief David Hearst and investigative journalist Iona Craig, who examine the catastrophic humanitarian emergency facing over 22 million Yemenis, the formation of rival regional alliances, and whether Saudi Arabia can ever achieve a decisive victory in Yemen.

What influence does the UK still have on the world stage? And can it use it to prevent some of the world’s worst atrocities? On this episode of the Fourcast, we’re joined by the Nobel Peace Prize Laureate and member of the Standing Group on Atrocity Crimes, Oleksandra Matviichuk. From Ukraine to Sudan and Myanmar to Xinjiang - this decade has seen some of the worst crimes against humanity amid an ever more uncertain world order. Matviichuk however says that the UK can - and should - become a ‘world leader’ in the prevention of atrocities around the world - and that doing so is in our national interest.

Zack Polanski and the Green Party are facing pressing questions after Andy Burnham’s Labour held Keir Starmer’s former seat in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The result is a setback for Polanski’s hopes of challenging Labour on the left of British politics. With calls for his resignation after he declined to vote on the Green Party’s ‘Zionism is Racism’ motion, is this just a blip for the Green Party leader or is his leadership really under threat? In this episode of The Fourcast, Jackie Long spoke to Green Party’s deputy leader Rachel Millward, as well as the political correspondent from the New Statesman Megan Kenyon and pollster from More In Common UK, Luke Tryl.

In the last few days a former German spy chief has been accused of selling state secrets, a British navy sailor has been charged with espionage and now two Latvians have been picked up near a British air base in Cambridgeshire - not to mention the mysterious goings on at RAF Fairford. So are Western intelligence agencies facing a growing threat? Or was it ever thus? In this episode of the Fourcast Indicators, Krishnan Guru Murthy and Mark Urban are joined by former national security adviser Sir Mark Lyall Grant.

The unprecedented survival of Christa Pike following a botched lethal injection in Tennessee has plunged the American capital punishment system into a deep legal and constitutional crisis. Sentenced to death at age 18 for the 1995 murder of Colleen Slemmer, Pike was scheduled to become the first woman executed by the state in over two centuries. However, after two lethal doses of pentobarbital failed to kill her, she survived and was rushed to intensive care. Pike is now reportedly conscious and speaking in hospital while handcuffed to her bed. In this episode of The Fourcast, Anushka Asthana is joined by Dr. Joel Zivot, an anaesthesiologist advising Pike's defence team, Robin Maher from the Death Penalty Information Center, and "Surviving Execution" author Ian Woods. The panel asks: Can an execution ever truly be humane, or has America reached a breaking point with capital punishment?

The sudden withdrawal of American heavy bombers from RAF Fairford back to the United States follows a major incident near the Gloucestershire airbase. Five men were arrested near the base, with the UK government saying it showed "strong indications" of state-sponsored involvement from Tehran. So why has the US pulled its bombers from the UK? Has the abrupt departure handed Tehran a tactical and propaganda victory? And what does the saga say about the UK’s special relationship with the US? On this episode of the Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Dr David Jordan from the Freeman Air and Space Institute, former senior official at the Pentagon, Jim Townsend, as well as Trita Parsi from the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

An Israel-bound Flydubai flight plunged more than 14,000 feet in just 30 seconds after the co-pilot allegedly attacked the pilot and tried to take control of the aircraft. The plane eventually landed safely in Saudi Arabia after passengers and off-duty pilots intervened, but the incident has raised urgent questions about aviation security, insider threats and whether flights to Israel now face a new kind of risk. Matt Frei and Mark Urban examine what we know so far, why Benjamin Netanyahu has compared the incident to a potential “9/11-style” attack, and what it could mean for Israel, Flydubai and airline security around the world. There is currently no evidence linking the alleged attack to Iran or a wider terrorist plot.

In a seismic ruling that has sent shockwaves through football, Manchester City have been found guilty of dozens of financial charges spanning a nine-year period from 2009 to 2018. The club were found to have systematically misstated financial accounts, arranged disguised funding through "sham" sponsorship agreements, and failed to cooperate in good faith with the league's four-year investigation. While Manchester City have denied the findings and said they plan to appeal the findings, what punishment could they face - a points deduction? Relegation? In this episode of The Fourcast, Jordan Jarrett-Bryan is joined by chief football writer Darren Lewis and football finance expert Kieran Maguire, the panel interrogates how badly the Premier League’s brand has been tarnished, what punishments the club could face, and whether the integrity of the modern game can survive.

Can John Healey deliver the growth Britain desperately needs? At Labour’s conference in Liverpool, the Chancellor promised a new age of industrialisation, more opportunities for young people and an era of political hope. But with the government under pressure to control spending, what does that mean for welfare, public investment and the economy? In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to economist Mariana Mazzucato and Times columnist Fraser Nelson. They debate how Britain can grow its economy, whether welfare reform can get more people into work, and whether the government should cut taxes and regulation or invest more heavily in public services and infrastructure.

Hundreds of thousands of people were killed in a two-year between Tigrayan forces and Ethiopia's government which ended in a peace deal in 2022. Today the trauma and fear of war creeps back in as both sides accuse each other of launching new offensives. Earlier this week the TPLF announced a new coalition alongside other militias - some of whom had previously been bitter opponents. The so-called Alliance for survival is made up of seven armed rebel groups which have been waging their own battles against the Ethiopian government in different parts of the country. Tigrayan forces have seized three airports in Tigray, and in response Ethiopian airlines have suspended all flights to the region. But why are things escalating now? Is the clock ticking for the Ethiopian government? And will Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed achieve his goal of accessing the Red Sea? To understand things better and break it all down we’re joined by Tsedale Lemma, an Ethiopian journalist and founder of the Addis Standard and Nicholas Westcott, former director of the Royal African Society.

US presidents typically welcome foreign leaders at the White House, but on Wednesday Donald Trump laid out the red carpet to greet China’s premier Xi Jinping.In today’s episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban discuss the future being shaped by the two superpowers, what that means for geopolitics and for the economy. Joining us shortly is Bronwen Maddox, CEO of Chatham House, who has written and spoken extensively about China’s attempt to rule a post-American world, and a book called In Defence of America, on how the US has been taken for granted by the rest of the world.

Addressing the UN General Assembly in New York, Prime Minister Andy Burnham warned of an "insidious campaign" of hostile foreign interference aimed at stoking domestic division and eroding democratic trust. To combat the threat, Burnham announced the creation of the National Centre for Information Defence. In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by disinformation expert and author Nina Jankowicz, the Chair of the Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament, Lord Beamish, as well as the Conservative MP Alicia Kearns. They discuss the threat posed by Russia to the UK, the role of tech platforms and whether the new unit could risk the censoring of free speech.

Can Andy Burnham turn the UK economy around? With just a few weeks to go until his first Budget, the new prime minister is facing a difficult economic outlook, as he deals with sluggish growth, the rising cost of living and a war in Iran which threatens to send inflation soaring. In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to the former chief economist of the Bank of England Andy Haldane and Channel 4’s Economics Editor Helia Ebrahimi. They discuss cuts to welfare, the pensions triple lock and Britain’s problem with young NEETS: those not in education, employment or training.

The EU President Ursula Von der Leyen has offered Canada ‘associate membership of the EU’, a move which Donald Trump called ‘laughable’ - but still threatened ‘serious sanctions’ as punishment. In this episode of the Fourcast, we ask what Canada’s closer ties with the EU could mean - from tighter trade and defence to what Mark Carney calls 'a beacon for other democracies.' But with the far right rising in Europe, is the Canadian Prime Minister trying to join a club that could soon fall apart? Leslie Vinjamuri, the President and CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs says Carney is playing a long-game when it comes to the US, picking up support on both sides of the border by standing up to Trump, and that his decision to move closer to the EU is a ‘declaration of independence from King Trump’. While Dr. Linn Selle, head of the Europe division of the German Council on Foreign Relations, argues that the EU is chasing Carney’s star power to help revive its appeal.

Ed Sheeran has found himself embroiled in a huge row after the rapper Macklemore was dropped as a support act from his tour, after he made comments in support of Palestine. The Suffolk singer has said he is "not complicit" and that the decision to drop Macklemore was not his. Since then, all the other support acts have pulled out of the tour in support of the rapper. On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks with singer Paloma Faith who has publicly supported Macklemore, calling him ‘my hero’ on social media. They discuss the pressure put on if musicians by business interests, whether music can ever stay out of politics and if musicians can ever truly sit on the fence when it comes to the Israel-Palestine conflict.

Is British politics becoming more like America, dominated by billionaires, huge donations and increasingly polarised media? Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by journalist and broadcaster Mehdi Hasan, who has returned to the UK to launch Zeteo UK. They discuss Reform UK’s £72 million in donations from two crypto billionaires, what wealthy political donors might expect in return, Britain’s changing relationship with Israel, Donald Trump and the threat to journalism in America - and whether independent media can rebuild the trust lost by traditional news organisations. Hasan also discusses the war in Gaza, which he describes as a 'genocide' - Israel strongly rejects allegations of genocide and denies committing war crimes, saying its military operations are conducted in accordance with international law.

Twenty-five years after 9/11, its consequences are still shaping the world. From Tony Blair and George W Bush to Trump, MAGA and the rise of populism in Europe, how much of today’s politics can be traced back to September 11th? In today’s episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban look back at the attack that transformed American foreign policy, ushered in the war on terror and dramatically expanded the power of intelligence agencies and surveillance. They are joined by Ambassador Nicholas Burns, the US ambassador to NATO on 9/11, who reveals how America’s allies responded in the hours after the attack, why he now regrets supporting the invasion of Iraq, and what the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan did to America’s willingness to intervene overseas.

The UK has signalled a major change in its approach to Israel, after its Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband announced what he called a “reset” of relations, as well banning exports from illegal Israeli settlements. And while the move has been praised by many, it has attracted condemnation from Washington and Israel, who in response announced they would close the British consulate in Jerusalem. So is the move mainly a symbolic gesture from the British government? Or could it signify a major policy shift when it comes to its once close ally? On this episode of the Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by the Palestinian Ambassador to the UK, Husam Zomlot, the Labour Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee Dame Emily Thornberry MP, as well as former Conservative Foreign Secretary Sir Malcolm Rifkind.

Germany’s far-right party has won a major victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, although it remains to be seen whether the AfD will be able to form a government there. Nevertheless, the result has sent shockwaves not only through Germany, but across Europe too. For the first time since the end of the Second World War, a far-right party could gain power in a German state. Why is the AfD surging? How much is its success being driven by immigration, economic frustration and anger at the political establishment? And what could its rise mean for Germany’s relationship with Russia, NATO and the EU? Matt Frei is joined by author and commentator John Kampfner and Dr Sarah Wagner, a researcher in political science at Queen’s University Belfast, to examine whether this is a political blip or a watershed moment for Germany and Europe.

Senior Reform officials have been caught on camera discussing ways to get thousands of pounds of foreign money into the party, potentially breaking electoral law.[Subscribe to our Substack newsletter: https://channel4news.substack.com/subscribe]A Channel 4 News and Verbatim Investigations investigation found that James Orr, Reform’s Head of Policy, and Dan Jukes, a close aide to Nigel Farage, arranged for a US company to secretly fund three influential polls commissioned by the party. Since we aired the story, the two officials involved have stepped down from their positions but deny wrongdoing, and rival parties have reported Reform to the police. The Reform party has denied wrongdoing and launched an internal investigation. Nigel Farage has insisted that the party has broken no laws.To discuss all of this, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by political commentator and former Reform member Tim Montgomerie, Labour MP Dame Emily Thornberry, as well as the barrister and election law expert Tom Gillie.

A potentially “supersized” El Niño is forecast for this winter - and scientists warn it could bring more extreme weather, from droughts and heatwaves to devastating floods. But what happens when El Niño collides with a world already being reshaped by climate change? On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy asks whether governments, businesses and the global financial system are prepared for the shocks ahead. He speaks to Liz Stephens, Professor of Climate Risks and Resilience at the University of Reading and an anticipatory action expert at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, who explains how early warning systems can help communities prepare before disaster strikes, and economist Dr Matthew Winning, from UCL’s Institute for Sustainable Resources, looks at the wider economic consequences - from food prices and supply chains to insurance, investment and our pensions. As extreme weather becomes harder to predict, should we rethink the way we plan for disasters? And is it already too late to rely on the old idea of a “one-in-100-year” event?

Hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough have faded as retaliatory strikes flare up once again across the Middle East. And with Donald Trump warning of further military escalation, is the world at risk of yet another economic shock? So what’s behind the new wave of strikes in the Middle East? And could Iran be at risk of losing control of its ultimate bargaining chip - the Strait of Hormuz. In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Krishnan Guru-Murthy and Mark Urban break down the geopolitical signals shaping this war. Joined by the economist Neil Shearing from Capital Economics, they discuss global markets, inflation, and whether an exit strategy exists for either side.

Pakistan is the latest country to hit back after the White House threatened countries who trade with Iran. China has already said it won’t be taking orders from America. So is this another failed bid by Donald Trump to bend Iran and its backers to his will? Or could this actually work? Several senior Iranian leaders have recently acknowledged the economic pain that the country and its people are feeling. On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Mohammed Marandi, a professor at Tehran University and a former adviser to Iran’s nuclear negotiating team to get a view from inside Iran.

Meta has agreed to a landmark settlement over allegations that its platforms harmed children and teenagers - raising a much bigger question about how social media is designed and regulated. On this episode of The Fourcast, we look at what the settlement actually means for Instagram and Facebook users, whether other social media companies could be forced to follow suit, and whether this could fundamentally change the way we use social media. Krishnan Guru-Murthy was joined by visiting professor at Stony Brook University School of Journalism and author of ‘Hot Type’ Jeff Jarvis and Associate Professor in Digital Humanities at University College London, Kaitlyn Regehr. In a statement released after the settlement, Meta said the agreement is not an admission of wrongdoing, but a new framework designed to give parents more control and teenagers stronger protections. It says the measures will only work if TikTok and YouTube adopt the same rules, because teenagers move between multiple platforms.

Britain is doubling down on its support for Ukraine, backing a deal that could see Ukraine produce its own long-range missiles as Russia intensifies its attacks. But as Moscow ramps up its missile production and warns of further mobilisation, Ukraine is facing growing pressure on its air defences and ammunition supplies. Meanwhile, questions remain over whether Europe can fill the gap if US support continues to weaken. On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru Murthy is joined by Channel 4 News International Editor Lindsey Hilsum and Guardian foreign correspondent Luke Harding to discuss Britain's growing role in the war, the state of the battlefield and whether Ukraine's allies are becoming weary of the conflict. Could long-range Ukrainian missiles change the war? Is Russia winning the war of attrition? And how far is Britain prepared to go to support Ukraine?

Is Donald Trump driving the world economy off a cliff while you’re on your summer holiday? America has just passed $40 trillion of debt. Trump’s tariffs are pushing up prices, his tax cuts are adding to the deficit, and his war with Iran has sent oil prices soaring. Now bond markets are turning on him. The US treasury has tried to step in and calm the bond markets, but it doesn’t appear to have worked. So what exactly is going on? Is this just a wobble in the bond markets - or a sign of something much worse to come? On this episode of The Fourcast, Ciaran Jenkins is joined by Pippa Malmgren, who served as an economic adviser to President Bush, and The Economist’s Archie Hall.

Should Britain tax wealth more heavily? With the government under pressure to find billions for public services and defence, Andy Burnham has refused to rule out a wealth tax. But would taxing the richest households actually raise significant money, or drive wealth, investment and entrepreneurs out of the country? On The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Gabriel Zucman, economist and author of 'We Need to Tax Billionaires' and economist Arthur Laffer, creator of the Laffer Curve. So how unequal is Britain? Has wealth become undertaxed compared with income? And if Britain doesn't tax the richest more, where else should the government find the money?

Nigel Farage has secured re-election in the Clacton by-election, but his political gamble to "stick two fingers up to the establishment" hasn’t gone according to plan. With novelty candidate Count Binface as Farage’s primary challenger, the self-described intergalactic space warrior secured nearly 10,000 votes. With Farage's personal favorability ratings dropping and accusations that he skipped the declaration to avoid being "humiliated by nobodies," has the Reform leader’s publicity stunt severely backfired? In this episode of The Fourcast, Alex Thomson speaks to Popular Conservatism director Mark Littlewood, columnist Sonia Sodha, and polling expert Luke Tryl (Reform UK were unable to find anyone from the party to appear on the podcast). They analyse whether Reform UK is losing its political momentum, how the ongoing standards investigation affects Farage's future, and whether Britain's political right is facing a deep crisis of credibility.

In the West Bank village of Qusra, Israeli settlers have spent days besieging Palestinian homes, cutting residents off from food and water - an attack even Donald Trump’s ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, has condemned as a “horrific act of terror”. But this incident appears to be part of an escalation of settler violence in the West Bank this year. So can Benjamin Netanyahu and his government, who have at times condemned the violence but have also done so much to embolden settlers, reign it in? Or is the situation spiralling out of control? In a statement, the Israeli military said that soldiers had been deployed in Qusra since Thursday morning to protect residents and maintain security, and "were instructed that the Qusra residents will remain in their homes." The military added that "soldiers will not operate inside the Palestinian family's home located near the site where the tent that was evacuated and dismantled had been erected". On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by former Israeli ambassador to Canada Alan Baker, who was part of a commission set up by Benjamin Netanyahu to investigate the legality of settlements in the West Bank. He was also joined by Palestinian ambassador to Unesco Adel Atieh and Haaretz senior analyst Esther Solomon.

In 2019, Theresa May positioned the UK as a global climate leader by enshrining a legally binding Net Zero target by 2050. Fast forward seven years, and the political landscape on the British Right has transformed dramatically. With Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch proposing to repeal Net Zero targets and Reform UK labeling green policies "net-stupid-zero," the consensus around climate action is fracturing. All this comes as the UK endures repeated heatwaves, droughts, and severe economic impacts—with summer heatwaves costing an estimated £4.4bn in lost productivity alongside thousands of excess deaths. As extreme weather directly threatens agriculture and rural communities, is the Right out of step with voters, or are they tapping into growing cost-of-living concerns? In this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei explores whether Net Zero scepticism is pragmatic economics or climate denial in disguise. Matt is joined by former Energy Minister Graham Stuart MP, Net Zero Scrutiny Group member Lord Peter Lilley, and former NFU President Baroness Minette Batters to debate conservative ideology, economic reality, and the electoral risks facing the Right.

AI is increasingly being used to find vulnerabilities, exploit networks and carry out cyberattacks - but how autonomous are these systems really? On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei asks whether we are approaching a world where AI agents can conduct cyberattacks with little or no human intervention. Could an AI maintain access to a network, evade attempts to shut it down or even copy itself? Matt is joined by AI safety expert and author of Considerations on the AI Endgame, Dr Roman V. Yampolskiy, and Katie Moussouris, founder and CEO of Luta Security and a former contributor to the US government's ‘Hack the Pentagon’ programme. They discuss the latest AI hacking incidents, whether governments need tougher regulation, who should be responsible when AI causes harm, and whether AI could ultimately become both the biggest cyber threat - and the best defence against it.

The war in Ukraine appears to have entered a new phase, as Kyiv has launched increasingly ambitious long-range strikes deep inside Russia, put mounting pressure on Crimea and sought to bring the war closer to ordinary Russians and Vladimir Putin. But now the Kremlin is hitting back hard. In a missile attack on Kyiv this week, at least 17 people were killed. Now there’s reports of a Ukrainian plane in Leipzig, Germany, being targeted by an explosive-laden drone. It’s not clear who was behind the attack but reporting suggests it could be Russia. So are we witnessing a dangerous new phase of escalation? On this episode of the Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban are joined by economist Timothy Ash from Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia programme.

Just a few months ago, Nigel Farage and Reform UK looked unstoppable. After sweeping the local elections and topping opinion polls, many believed Reform was on course for government. But has the momentum already begun to fade? A string of controversies - including police investigations, questions over party finances, and a £5 million donation from a Thailand-based cryptocurrency billionaire - has put Reform under growing pressure. With the party slipping in the polls, are these scandals finally cutting through with voters, or is this just another setback Farage will survive? On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Tim Ross from Politico, former Reform UK spokesperson Gawain Towler and Labour strategist Claire Ainsley to examine what's gone wrong for Reform, whether Andy Burnham has given Labour a route back to power, why the Greens are also losing ground, and what the latest polling tells us about the future of British politics.

After around 50,000 migrants crossed into Spain’s North African territory of Ceuta, far-right politicians across Europe quickly branded the events an "invasion." But with most migrants already returning to Morocco and UK illegal boat crossings dropping to a five-year low—down 43% compared to 2025—what is actually driving the debate around European border control? On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Director of the Migration Observatory Madeleine Sumption, Director of Politics at Ipsos Keiran Pedley, and Austrian migration expert Gerald Knaus. They discuss whether the incident in Ceuta could drive a new surge for the far-right across Europe, how the UK could be affected and if immigration is still the hot topic for voters.

Despite his job seemingly looking assured just a few weeks ago, Gianni Infantino’s position as President of FIFA is now in jeopardy. With the footballing federations of Europe, North America and Asia all rejecting Infantino’s plans to sell off part of the World Cup to private investors, pressure is piling on Infantino. Even the new Prime Minister Andy Burnham says Infantino is the “wrong man” to lead FIFA. On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Channel 4’s Sports Reporter, Jordan Jarrett-Bryan, as well as Abiola Ijasanmi the former Chief Operating Officer from the Confederation of African Football. They discuss whether Infantino has badly mis-read the situation and - could he actually could be forced out of this job?

The war between the United States and Iran has spread across the Middle East. Fresh strikes in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Egypt, alongside escalating Houthi attacks on international shipping, have raised fears that the region is entering a dangerous new phase. With Washington intensifying its military campaign and Iran relying on its network of allied militias, is this becoming a wider regional war? On this episode of The Fourcast: Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban are joined by Professor Madawi al-Rasheed from the London School of Economics Middle East Centre. They discuss why the Houthis are stepping up attacks, whether Saudi Arabia is being pulled into the fighting despite its efforts to avoid it, how Iraqi militias could become a new flashpoint, and whether the US has a long-term strategy, or is being drawn into another prolonged Middle East war. Is there still a path to de-escalation, or are we witnessing the beginning of a conflict that could engulf the wider region?

Social care is the thorny issue which politicians have failed to solve for decades. Today though, the new Prime Minister Andy Burnham put it back on the political agenda as he called for a ‘National Care Service’, saying that social care in the UK is “as unfair” as the healthcare system in the US. On this week’s episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by the former Conservative Work and Pensions Secretary Damien Green, Professor Richard Humphries who is a Senior Policy Advisor at the Health Foundation and the Liberal Democrat MP and Chair of the Health Select Committee Layla Moran. They discuss why the current system is not fit for purpose, why previous efforts at reform have failed and whether Andy Burnham could be the one to finally solve it.

As thousands of people are forced to flee their homes amid devastating wildfires in France, Spain and Scotland, the climate emergency seems closer to people’s lives than ever. Despite this, governments around the world are seemingly rolling back their efforts to end the fossil fuel pollution that is driving the climate emergency. On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by environmentalist George Monbiot, Professor Liz Bentley from the Royal Meteorological Society and Fiona Macklin, Head of Climate at Apolitical. They discuss what it will take to finally get politicians to start taking global heating seriously. And whether even when disaster is staring us in the face, if we as a people are really ready to make the changes necessary?

Months after many of his ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs were declared illegal by the Supreme Court, Donald Trump has announced a fresh wave of tariffs against dozens of countries. This time, using the allegation of “forced labour” by America’s trading partners, Trump is hoping his new tariffs will be less open to challenge in the courts. But what will the impact be on American consumers already hit hard by the war in Iran? And can anyone take Trump’s trade policy seriously, when it can all change in an instant? On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Australian-American economist Justin Wolfers, as well as Financial Times columnist and co-author of the book How to Win a Trade War, Soumaya Keynes.

The US and Saudi Arabia have reportedly signed a landmark deal that could pave the way for a Saudi nuclear programme, sparking fears it could eventually allow the Gulf kingdom to develop its own nuclear weapon. President Donald Trump has denied that the agreement permits Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium, and says any deal is dependent on Riyadh joining the Abraham Accords and recognising Israel, a move many experts say remains unlikely. Meanwhile, tensions in the region have escalated after Houthi attacks on Saudi ships in the Bab el Mandab strait pushed oil prices higher. Trump has warned that further attacks could trigger “major military punishment” against Iran and the Houthis. On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Channel 4 News foreign affairs correspondent Jonathan Rugman to examine the US-Saudi nuclear deal, the growing confrontation with the Houthis, and what it means for the future of the Middle East.